Can't Have One Without the Other

We cannot have a recession without major job loss. Friday's March job loss number only confirmed this:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123876121625986405.html#mod=testMod

With the jobless rate at 8.5% and the broader disenfranchised or under employed figure at 15.6%, it looks more and more likely that the jobless rate will reach 10%. The experts seem to point to this figure peaking in early 2010. Although, I do not know how they could determine this, the potential peaking of joblessness is good for one thing - the stock market!

My employer recently did a fairly definitive study, showing that in all the recessions/depressions of the modern era, the stock market turned northward between five and six months before unemployment peaked. Unfortunately, I cannot reproduce the study on 2outof4.

I am of the believe that in this Internet age things happen much faster. So, to look at the recent stock market rally and suggest that it is the beginning of a further rally ahead of peak unemployment, does not seem crazy to me. The question becomes, taking the stimuli into account, does unemployment really peak in the beginning of 2010?

If 2outof4 knew the answer, you would already be receiving quarterly account statements from me, rather than reading this rambling Blog!

-2outof4