Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Stock Interest List Update

This is just a quick update on the Longs list:

SHOO - reported 4Q08 yesterday. The results looked pretty strong, but the guidance was a bit weak. I am reserving judgment on this one until I see a full Statement of Cashflow. It seemed to me as though SHOO chewed through a bit of cash in the quarter and was not the most forthright about that. At this point I am still interseted in the name.

MWW - gathered a few more data points on this one, including the Annual Report being published. Although, the stock certainly looks cheaper (as many do), it did chew through a lot of its cash pile in 4Q. Granted, a lot of that was from acquisition, but given the environment, its not clear how any acquisition will integrate. Also, with the proliferation of competitors, costs were clearly driven up and margins down. I would have more interest in the business if it possessed clearer barriers to entry, but its not clear they really differentiate themselves. Some will say, "but if you were interested at $8.93, surely you must still be interested at $6.75?" With MWW this is not the case. I would prefer to look for companies with stronger business models. The idea that the stock might bounce on an indication or passage of economic stimulus was incorrect. While MWW returned (24.41%) in the time since it was placed on the interest list, the S&P 500 returned (10.99%). I am removing it from the interest list.

-2outof4

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