Long Time

Hello 2outof4 Followers,

It looks like I have not posted since December 2009, so it made sense to me to remove the stock ideas. If you had been keeping track, I think there was a good demonstration of not to short really expensive cult stocks, just b/c they are really expensive cult stocks!

In the future, I hope to return with more good content and analysis. I really like this space. Life events have just taken me other directions for the time being.

I hope everyone is well.

-2outof4

I Would Volunteer

Make this commission full of private citizens rather than bureaucrats and we could be on to something!:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/12/30/AR2009123002576.html?wprss=rss_politics

This way the pols don't have to worry about taking blame and losing votes from the constituents. Let people who care about the long-term make the hard decisions.

Enjoy New Year's Eve!

-2outof4

Failure

Happy Friday. Here's a great speech to keep in mind from a very interesting man. Google his PBS trading videos from the '80s to get a flavor.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/16588637/Paul-Tudor-Jones-Failure-Speech-June-2009

-2outof4

My Head!

That bump on my head is from beating it into my desk!

Surprise surprise, more short-termism out of Washington:

http://thehill.com/homenews/house/69295-dems-push-wall-street-150b-stock-tax

How can anyone possibly think this is a good idea except the orgs that put money into these pols' campaign coffers?!?

The comments following the article are the most instructive. Of course it will trickle down to the common man! You think Street trading firms are going to feel this? As painful is the crutch of "Buy and Hold" investing that these pols lean on. If the person watching your money over the last 24 months was not trading in a tactical manner knowing the macro backdrop, then s/he was doing you a disservice!

If you live in the state DeFazio or Perlmutter represents, please question their thought process and just what they think they are going to accomplish. If the foresight is that low concerning this tax, there can only be more trouble on the horizon.

-2outof4

Shopping Tips

Happy Monday!

Departing from the norm doom and gloom, I want to offer up 2outof4's holiday and beyond shopping tips.

First of all, absolutely 100% refuse to pay full price this year. Literally every chain retailer out there has some sort of online or in store promo for no less than 30% off. If you need a coupon, just ask around. A day doesn't go buy without some sort of fantastic deal coming into my inbox.

Secondly, and going beyond the holidays, give Amazon a chance for your everyday non-perishables. Mrs. 2ooutof4 and I signed up for Amazon Prime (well, actually it was her). This gives us free shipping until mid December. So this morning we bought razor blades at about 30% off and no sales tax. The plan is to do this with TP and paper towels as well. I know people who use it for diapers. I've also priced out nuts, that are way cheaper than at the Grocery.

Anyhow, whether you are looking for gifts this season or staples, do not pay full price! We're getting deflation before the big spike in inflation!

-2outof4

Background Check

Good Morning! I'm engulfed in President Obama's "Dreams of My Father" at the moment. I am only up to the point where the President becomes an "organizer", but my intuition is that every American voter should have read this book pre-election.

So far, that same intuition tells me that the man at the top does not possess the pre-disposition to deal with the economic trouble that America was mired in at the time of the election in a manner to set us on a path to sustainable recovery.

Unfortunately, this piece also seems intuitive:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704431804574537490451978558.html

I still like the Short XRT (ETF) as an investment idea. Have a great weekend!

-2outof4

China Lectures Us

Are we living in a sustainable policy environment? This is a question Mrs. 2outof4 and I were trying to answer on the drive home from a great weekend with family. Our answer, no. And when China is lecturing us on the fiscal policy, the lack of sustainability in our fiscal policy seems pretty evident:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125826103009548975.html?mod=article-outset-box

-2outof4

Oh Boy

This is a culmination of some many things posted on 2outof4. It is almost so sad, its funny:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704107204574473724099542430.html

-2outof4

Reasonable Short?

I heard an interesting point yesterday. Pull a 3 year chart of the XRT, which is one of the retailer ETF's (exchange traded funds).

http://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NYSE:XRT

Does it make sense that a basket of retailers would be trading in the market at roughly the same level as before things cliffed last September? For several reasons I would argue no, but I'd be curious to hear your thoughts.

The components of the XRT can be found here:

https://www.spdrs.com/product/fund.seam?ticker=xrt

-2outof4

Would Shorter Political Terms Change "Short-Termism?"

Einhorn shorts U.S. 'short-term thinking' - NY Post reports David Einhorn is bullish on gold because he's bearish on Obama. Members of President Obama's prized economic team, including Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, are "quintessential short-term decision makers," Einhorn said, explaining his sudden fondness for gold. Watching Geithner, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and White House economic advisor Larry Summers on television recently, "my instinct was to short the dollar," Einhorn joked at the Value Investing Congress. Instead, he decided to invest in gold, even though futures hit a record price of $1,072 an ounce last week. Gold does well when "monetary and fiscal policies go awry," said the hedge-fund manager best known for shorting toppled investment bank Lehman Brothers. Specifically, Einhorn trashed the team's "too-big-to-fail" policy requiring taxpayers to prop up large, troubled institutions, like banks. "Our authorities have taken the view that kids will be kids," he said, comparing the officials to the parents of teenagers who know they will be rescued any time they get caught. He suggested public officials break up large financial institutions that appear on the brink of collapse rather than bail them out. Einhorn also said Geithner's regulatory reform plan was akin to efforts to stop terrorism by "frisking grandma and taking away everyone's shampoo." He scoffed at the idea that the government might try to regulate complex financial instruments like credit default swaps, believing they should be wiped out. He said regulating the swaps is like "trying to make asbestos safer."

On a side note, Mr. Einhorn has made a couple of 2outof4 appearances now!

-2outof4